The GOP Debate Scorecard

My takeaway on the debate: CNBC folks were a bit excited - more like juniors at prom rather than seniors but they did a decent job, regardless of what the mouth-breathers in the audience thought and the candidates thought was easy media bashing.

The candidates? Well my theory is that we'll get all these folks paraded in front of us like we really have a choice and by the end we'll get back to establishment candidates that are beholden to corporate interests, as usual. Plus, the 'outsiders' become less interesting the more you hear them talk.

It's like talking to drunk in a bar. His insights are interesting/entertaining maybe once or twice, but then you get a bit tired of hearing them.

So here's my rundown.

Rubio is like an overindulged child - impatient, assertive and over confident. Too much a bounder to be a good leader. Maybe in another decade. Time to shut up and grow up Marco. Underneath his tough talk is scared little boy who will no longer be a senator and has little political future if this doesn't pan out. Maybe Secretary of HUD?

Bush is like Rubio's father. Patient, a bit world-weary. Or maybe it's more like a little dog and big dog. Sure the little one seems a lot more aggressive and the big one will let him steal his bones and nip at him. But at the end of the day, if you need a dog to protect you, that little one is going to be under the sofa.

Fiorina, she is everything I dislike about the West Coast money class. Every time she talks I feel like she is just saying what sounds good - she doesn't give a shit about the working class, please. Show me where she made any decision that evidences that. And by the way, she did a crap job at HP and Lucent, regardless of what rationalizing goes on in her spin camp. She couldn't even win her state in a Senate bid. A side show - establishment Republicans showing that they are 'diverse'.

Trump is acting like a winner. Some sniping; shot down Kasich with one overhand right, but stayed relatively civil. Too much complaining about the questions. You're running for president, you have to answer questions you don't like. You're not king. Will starting sounding like a whiner if he keeps it up and his is not a persona that can be whiner. Answer the questions, no matter how stupid or challenging; that's your responsibility whether you like it or not.

Carson looked good. He's the cerebral right wing nut. But as long as he uses his indoor voice he doesn't sound as uninformed as he appears to be. He's also rapidly correcting that aspect of his persona. I think he ran with a loose platform never thinking he'd be where he is and now he has to get his policy chops together or end up being laughed off the stage as Herman Caine 2.0.

Kasich. I like him. I think he's the most credible candidate that could actually get something done in Washington. But because he isn't a polarizing figure he isn't TV interesting. He's not about grandstanding and blood sport. He's about getting shit done and the GOP has spent 8 years trying not to get things done and it's hurt the party as well as the process. Not sure he can unify all the divisions but he has a good American centrist message and he's from a key swing state.

Cruz seemed to create a buzz in the press but for the life of me I don't see why. Like Rubio, he's done nothing in his Senate career to distinguish himself except to be an obstructionist. Does he realize the president is the leader of his party, not a bomb-throwing outsider fomenting revolution? If you want to do that, stay a senator and what until you mellow bit. Your tannins are overwhelming at this point. I'm guessing you won't be a senator or a presidential candidate again.

Paul is about in the same boat as Cruz. But his problem is he left his Tea Party/Libertarian roots and moved to the middle to gain mainstream credibility - and in an ironic twist lost credibility in doing so. Not sure he has much left since he isn't really running for re-election in the senate because he's still focused on the presidency.

Huckabee. Well is there really anything to say about him? Just a washed up politician looking to stay relevant and get a paycheck out of his former profession.

Christie. Props to his efforts to not attack his opponents but take his populist rage out on Clinton and the moderators. We actually ended up staying at the same place in Jamaica as him and his fam last year. Our kids (and I) played soccer with his daughter. Nice kid. He was a bit removed but who could blame him? Anyway, his hard-ass thing is a bit late and he still can't really differentiate himself. Meh.

A Little Capex Story 

To keep my little capex argument going, here's a story I saw today about the fact that capex is drying up in big tech now.

A Shout Out to Halle

My daughter actually reads this crap and was feeling slighted when out mentioned her sister but didn't say anything about her.

Sorry you missed lunch today but daddy-o had to grind out some change to keep you in smartphones.

Well here you go, a whole subsection.

Rock on, gal.

Cops and Capex

I talked about how the economy is shifting from an industrial model to a technological model that I'm calling the Conversion Economy.

Basically what that means is we're mired in this recovery so long because the major industries are retooling for the new economy. Massive layoffs initially gave them the opportunity to consider how they were going to rehire and restructure.

The massive stock buybacks have kept stock prices for big firms safe from the free market during this time and they've been able to sock away their money and collect decent returns from borrowing at low rates.

What they haven't been doing is reinvesting into the economy - the old economy. That's why capex spending continues to drop. This article once again proves that capex is an old metric for economic recovery. The problem is, durable goods suffer when there's no capex and that effects the entire economic cycle, especially in a consumer and debt driven economy like the US.

Also, in a related story, Walmart is squeezing its suppliers to the point where many may end up collapsing. That's not a good thing for the US economy. 

I've heard stories from Walmart suppliers over a decade ago about what a nightmare it is to work with Walmart. The company is so cheap it's very hard to make money. But once you're in, it's too tempting not to try. But now, it seems for Walmart to make money, the suppliers have to lose money and that's untenable for both sides.

Both these stories tell a story about US and global recovery that bears watching. I know I will be.

A Chilling Effect?

So, FBI Director James Comey is saying that cops are gun shy now that Ferguson has occurred. Well, my first thought is, "Good."

But what he means as gun shy is supposed to strike fear in all middle class people, especially white people. He means the cops aren't arresting as many people (read poor minorities) as they used to.

That leaves them prowling your gated communities and running off with all your stuff or violently attacking you outside Starbucks.

What I'm saying is, it's a veiled threat. Question law enforcement tactics and they'll stop doing anything. No one seemed to feel like the air traffic controllers could get away with that. Or the trash collectors. Or teachers. 

Look, if cops would stop shooting everyone who runs away, that would be a start. And actually a few less arrests may be a good thing. Remember the riots in Baltimore were for a questionable arrest gone south, not that these cops had apprehended Scarface. Maybe just taking his knife and sending him on his way after kicking the crap out of him would have been sufficient?

But these veiled threats from a guy that works for the citizens of this country is a bit nauseating. Kind of totalitarian actually. And the White House has come out in disagreement to Comey's opinion. Wonder if Comey is polishing up that resume for the Conversion Economy?

Recession, Again?

A couple pieces this weekend that encouraged me to keep ranting - because I seem to be on to something others have picked up on. I'm not crazy, only feel that way.

That was the headline on the Washington Post business section top story on Sunday.

And this quote:

"But for many Americans, the difference between recovery and recession is blurry at Best. The nation's laobr force has shrunk to the lowest level since the 1970s, partly because many people have iven up looking for work. The number of people working part time even though they would prefer full time jobs remains well above the pre-recession level."

And then there was this today. 

I noted this last week and it's one of my key issues about the 'recovery' that's happening right now. We have a low unemployment rate because the economy has been so weak for so long, a staggering amount of people have stopped looking for jobs. Remember, the thing that truly brought us out the economic challenges of the Great Depression was World War II.

Hopefully we can find a more creative way out of this economic malaise as it drags closer to a decade.

Occupied and Occupiers Syndrome

Also, in Outlook was a piece by an Israeli novelist (and IDF member during the first intifada) Assaf Gavron, about about what the occupation of Palestinians has done to the occupiers (Israelis). It's short but emphasizes how unhealthy the relationship is for both sides.

Finding a solution means getting Hezbollah out of the game and allowing more moderate voices to emerge in Iran.

There was also an interesting stat in a cartoon on A15: 158 families in the US gave almost 50% of all the presidential campaign donations in the first half of this year. 138 gave to Republican candidates.

If that doesn't tell you we need campaign finance reform, I don't know what will. These companies also own major corporations and have significant corporate interests, so they're not really populists - on either side of the aisle.

And if we can't get significant campaign finance reform, how about we simply revoke coporations' right to be considered individuals. That would be much easier and get us about 70% where we want to be since it would revoke their 'First Amendment' rights.

If wishes were horses....

Just For Fun

Finally, here's something I ran across that was interesting.

Enjoy.

American's Top 10 Fears

Back To It: The Conversion Economy

Ok, I slacked off yesterday. Got my work done and had a kid home, so we went and grabbed some tacos at a local taqueria (La Michoacana) and ran errands. Good tacos. And most of the other stuff look very good as well. Hole in the wall, but great stuff.

I'm sure I was missed.

Anyway, two stories that grabbed me yesterday:

This one that is a very interesting explanation of why it's taking so long to get out of the economic slack time.

Essentially, it posits that the cloud is replacing capex (capital expenditures) spending. This would be huge, considering on significant indicator of an improving economy is rising capex spending since if a business begins to hire, add more office and production facilities, grows it computer needs and network, jobs are created across the economy.

But what is happening now is modeling and computing are reshifting the way companies are recovering. They don't need the manpower they did previously and when they retool, they can keep a lot of that cash for other things. Like stock buybacks and acquisitions.

This was an epiphany for me since it is an elegantly simple reason why this recovery has dragged on, so many people have been left out of the workforce, income inequality has grown, wages are stagnant  - and the US is supposedly leading the world in recovery.

I would contend we're leading the world in transitioning to a new economy. That mulitnationals are having to completely retool from a human-focused workplace to technology focused one.

This explains why it's taking so long to get back up to speed. And why layoffs are on rise in most industries, including tech. And commodity prices remain in the toilet. It's not about steel and copper, it's about AI, supercomputers and cloud computing.

That also means we need to look at new metrics on how to measure this 'conversion economy'.

And yes, at some point we'll need people and material to do things like build trains and road and apartment buildings. But we'll need less. And one architect and/or engineer with a computer is as powerful as an entire firm was back in the good ol' people days.

The implications here are significant. And I'm not going to spend my Saturday discussing it. But I think I'm right. I'm sure I'll be revisiting this regularly. For now, read the article and tell me what you think.

Help, It's The Police!

Another interesting story I saw yesterday is about a new FBI report that reveals that there is no 'war against police' and thus, begs the question why we continue to think our society is on the brink of social breakdown and it's necessary to kill unarmed people who have done little to merit getting shot for being an asshole.

Look in the old days, the theory was, no one is faster than radio. Meaning, if someone runs from you, you just get on your radio and have them caught. If you know their name and number, you wait for them to return home and then get them and rough them up for the effort. You don't draw down on them as they run and take them down for an outstanding warrant on a traffic violation.

Drawing your weapon was the last option, not the first. And the whole 'well things are different now' just doesn't cut it. Guns - in a growing number of circumstances - have replaced other policing methods. And when cops can shoot and get away with it, they'll continue to shoot instead of think.

This isn't a cop thing as much as it is a cultural thing.

Just like the fact that cops patrol poor neighborhoods differently than they patrol middle class suburbia. There are just as many drug deals and violence going on in both neighborhoods, but one has residents that are easier to engage, arrest and prosecute than the other. I know of crack houses in one of the nicest areas of Old Town Alexandria. But middle class people don't want cops in their business and will hire lawyers to keep them out; until ordered like a Domino's pizza. And expect faster delivery.

Bottom line: policing and politics are far too tied to one another these days - mandatory minimum sentencing, etc. Let the cops do what they think needs to be done and police how they see fit and get the politics out of it. Only then can we start to move forward. Once again, making policing political has distorted the real challenges on the street, and puts both cops and citizens at risk.

The Business of Science

An article in Quartz today makes an interesting assertion that about 2/3 of all scientific research findings can't be replicated.

Now, the science naysayers would say that it proves that most science - like global warming and the big bang - are a bunch of hokum. 

But the point is, science has become big business. Or, business has become big science. 

Just like in politics, some nebulous sounding organization forms a PAC. Well in science a company or group of companies form a foundation that does research that then gives them the answers they were looking for. When the results are questioned or someone tries to replicate them, and they aren't found to be credible, all science suffers.

But for the non-believers (of science), it's great news. And it's great news for politicians on all levels that can be bought off by the lobbyist, since they can claim that they were representing science and had know idea it was bad science.

Dead CAT Doesn't Bounce

CAT is the ticker symbol for Caterpillar, the heavy equipment maker. It sells its wares all around the world for everything from road building and construction to mining. Well, its numbers were horrible and that is a very troubling indicator for the global economy.

CAT has seen 34 consecutive months of declining revenues and 11 consecutive months of double digit sales declines. Revenue was down 20%. Operating profit was off 50%. Cash from operations is off 20%. Nowhere were sales improving.

We are not in a recovery.

Another case in point is the constantly cheery US economic news that is only a thin veneer on a complex situation no one wants to talk about. Obama is happy to take credit for low jobless numbers but no one address the fact that record numbers of Americans are out of the workforce. And that layoffs are rising - before we see the layoffs in the oilfields. 

So, while jobless claims are at 42-year lows, it layoffs are on the rise. Check this out. 

The only way to explain it is to say those that are currently in the workforce are employed. But wages aren't rising. Income inequality is worse than it was at the turn of the 20th Century. But we won't see revolution. We have smartphones. And advertising that keeps us striving to be the people that we think we should want to be. Remember what the war cry was after 9/11? No rise up! It was go shop!

But our consumer driven nature has point of diminishing returns. And we're bumping up against it.

As for the disenfranchised, this is very similar to what happened after the Great Depression. Scores of workers became 'unemployable'. The middle managers became a lost generation, too old to hire for the jobs young people are looking for and too expensive to bring back into middle and upper management roles.

There is a great tidal shift that continues in the global economy, including in US. We're nowhere near out of the woods, no matter how well the major media whistles past the graveyard.

I'll start playing around with formatting as I go, but it's a distraction at this point. Too many other balls in the air.

I want to use this space not only to touch on what's happening in the world (as I see it) but hopefully engage in dialog with people who agree or disagree with my thoughts. I find that too often these days our more complex thoughts are reduced to 140 characters or rapid fire convos on Facebook, or an evaporating pic and comment on Snapchat. What a perfect metaphor for the minimal expression world, eh?

Broad society is losing its ability to maintain a thought that last more than a minute or two before moving on - generations are now immersed in this kind society. I don't think this is natural, just adaptive behavior. I think that humans are social animals and developed language skills to help them communicate complexity.

In our post-modern world we're finding the concept of 'short-handing' communications cool and interesting because it forces us to rethink the way we communicate. I would argue that GW Bush was elected partially because of his skill as short-handing concepts to Americans.

Unfortunately his motivation was driven by his anti-intellectual disdain; his view that thinkers didn't have the balls to be leaders, hence his appointment of the Dark Prince as his VP.

I get it. And I think, that like the fact that fast food has its place, so does fast talk. But it shouldn't be the only talk. It's also similarly unhealthy as a steady diet. Some issues need to be explored in depth.

You don't disagree about something and punch someone in the face. Or shoot them. Well, at least not regularly.

Anyway, this is place that's not just for me but for you. My thoughts are here as a springboard to conversation as much as an outlet for my issues so I don't go (more) insane.

US Politics:

James K. Polk. Paul Ryan does not want to be James K Polk, the only Speaker of the House to ever win the presidency. That is why Ryan doesn't want the job.

Speakers have to wheel and deal - with Democrats even - and sometimes step on caucuses in their own party. That gives opponents plenty to talk about in election cycles, especially when you're running to be the leader of your party.

There's are part of the GOP that wants Ryan as Speaker to ruin his chances for the presidency on down the line. And Ryan knows who they are - competitors in the next cycle or two.

Then there are Republicans in Washington who have no political skills whatsoever, other than throwing parliamentary temper tantrums whenever things don't go their way. They want 'one of their own' to run the entire party. I'm not sure they understand the majorities rule in a democracy, but hey, whatever.

The Freedom Caucus is a bunch of bomb-throwing anti-government, anti-political yahoos who aren't in Washington to do something. They're in DC to throw IEDs into the political system, not build it, but destroy it. It's the ultimate iteration of anti-intellectual politics. Run for office to take down the system.

Hey, but as Sam Rayburn said, the American people get the politicians they deserve. I just always expected us to feel like we deserve better. Apparently I'm in the minority.

And speaking of deserving better, we come to Trump and Clinton.

Trump I think is interesting because he is saying to the American people what the moneyed class tell the politicians they've bought, behind closed doors. The reason people are shocked and fascinated is because he is simply being a billionaire who has the guts to let America see the kind of people who really run this country. And believe me, the GOP doesn't have a monopoly on these kinds of people. The Democrats have their own plutocracy.

A sly segue to the Clintons.

Again, there is not one major media echo chamber that doesn't pronounce her the Democratic candidate. They make it sound like if she doesn't get it, then it has to be because of nefarious means that it has been taken from her.

My wife recently said she sheepishly supported Hillary. I asked her why and she said, 'She deserves it, doesn't she?"

Exactly.

My 2 cents: No one deserves the presidency. You win it. You earn it. It isn't a legacy gift, handed down like Excalibur.

I want to see a contest. But the Democrats are treating this like a kid's sport. Everyone one is a winner and gets a prize - but everyone knows who is the best player and they are quietly deferred to, as everyone says winning isn't what's important. Bullshit.

Winning - and consensus - is what politics is all about. Grow up.

Ok, today I launch a blog.

World: 

Israel and the Palestinians are at it again. This situation continues to feed the worst in all of us. And it's time to come up with a better solution than allowing Israel to torment Palestinians and forcing Palestinians (and their political sympathizers) to attack Israel. This situation wasn't started 2000 years ago. It was started in 1948.

And in that vein, Iran is looking bolder these days. My take is the hard liners in Iran, who don't want the treaty with the West to go through are becoming increasingly belligerent, hoping to get into some hot conflict with the US or a key ally (Israel). They know their hard-line US counterparts are just itching to kick some Iranian ass.

That would scuttle the deal and the hardliners would win.

Russia knows what's happening and is, of course, stoking the fires by bringing in more Iranian firepower in Syria and rubbing the West's noses in how to kick ass against ISIS, et al. All hawks are jealous. But just because you can break something doesn't me you can build something. Putin is only half the strategist he needs to be. Quintessentially Russian politician.


US:

Election coronation goes on for Hillary on the Democratic side. CNN and MSNBC practically telling Joe Biden not to run. Saying Jim Webb should not mount an independent run because it would hurt Hillary. Saying Sanders doesn't have a chance.

Wow. What a democracy we live in.

On the Republican side, the great hypocrisy of the day is Ben Carson asking for Secret Service protection. Isn't this the guy who said that the Holocaust wouldn't have happened if the Jews, Gypsies, homosexuals, and intellectually challenged were all packing heat? The man who stared down a gunman? He now won't pack his own heat and take on some potential assassin like he suggested the victims of various recent shooting should have done. Bravo Ben. Let those true colors fly.

UCL:

Arsenal and Bayern Munich play soon. Can't imagine the Gunners pulling this one off. But it should be interesting to watch - for about 15 minutes.