The Business of Science

An article in Quartz today makes an interesting assertion that about 2/3 of all scientific research findings can't be replicated.

Now, the science naysayers would say that it proves that most science - like global warming and the big bang - are a bunch of hokum. 

But the point is, science has become big business. Or, business has become big science. 

Just like in politics, some nebulous sounding organization forms a PAC. Well in science a company or group of companies form a foundation that does research that then gives them the answers they were looking for. When the results are questioned or someone tries to replicate them, and they aren't found to be credible, all science suffers.

But for the non-believers (of science), it's great news. And it's great news for politicians on all levels that can be bought off by the lobbyist, since they can claim that they were representing science and had know idea it was bad science.

Dead CAT Doesn't Bounce

CAT is the ticker symbol for Caterpillar, the heavy equipment maker. It sells its wares all around the world for everything from road building and construction to mining. Well, its numbers were horrible and that is a very troubling indicator for the global economy.

CAT has seen 34 consecutive months of declining revenues and 11 consecutive months of double digit sales declines. Revenue was down 20%. Operating profit was off 50%. Cash from operations is off 20%. Nowhere were sales improving.

We are not in a recovery.

Another case in point is the constantly cheery US economic news that is only a thin veneer on a complex situation no one wants to talk about. Obama is happy to take credit for low jobless numbers but no one address the fact that record numbers of Americans are out of the workforce. And that layoffs are rising - before we see the layoffs in the oilfields. 

So, while jobless claims are at 42-year lows, it layoffs are on the rise. Check this out. 

The only way to explain it is to say those that are currently in the workforce are employed. But wages aren't rising. Income inequality is worse than it was at the turn of the 20th Century. But we won't see revolution. We have smartphones. And advertising that keeps us striving to be the people that we think we should want to be. Remember what the war cry was after 9/11? No rise up! It was go shop!

But our consumer driven nature has point of diminishing returns. And we're bumping up against it.

As for the disenfranchised, this is very similar to what happened after the Great Depression. Scores of workers became 'unemployable'. The middle managers became a lost generation, too old to hire for the jobs young people are looking for and too expensive to bring back into middle and upper management roles.

There is a great tidal shift that continues in the global economy, including in US. We're nowhere near out of the woods, no matter how well the major media whistles past the graveyard.