La Haine

That means 'hate' in French.

This movie is a must-see if you're interested in how this youngest generation of terrorists has come to be.

It was made in 1995, well before 9/11 and well before ISIS. Jodie Foster saw it in Europe and brought it to the US market. I saw it then and I watched it again tonight.

It is just as powerful as it was then, even more so, since as you watch it you realize that the kids that were 5 or 6 in 'la citie' (the projects) are now the same age as the ISIS terrorists. They lived La Haine and saw their brothers living in that dead-end turmoil.

And the ending, wow.

If you haven't seen it and you're looking for something powerful to watch this weekend (aside from Arsenal playing West Ham) this is worth the time. 

Check it out. Here's a link for more info at IMDB.

It's available on Amazon.com and Netflix, but only via DVD. There's a few other streaming services - maybe Hulu - but $3 on Amazon was good enough for me.

Remember, it's not how you fall that matters, it's how you land.

Too Much Youth Is Wasted On The Young

I love this headline from Fortune: What Europe Can Learn From America's 9/11 Response.

This is essentially the prism with which most Americans see the world - a US-centric view.

France has gone through 2 World Wars on its own soil, including Hitler's occupying army. And the Holocaust. I think they know something of terror and death.

Maybe we could learn from them? 

Nah.

We're like teenagers rolling our eyes at our parents when they do something 'stupid'.

One of my favorite Joseph Conrad quotes: Too much youth is wasted on the young.

Of Economics

On the economic front, we continue to edge closer to what is going to be a very wild month in the global markets.

Europe is planning on more easing, pumping more money into its system via its central bank because the continent is still flagging. China and India aren't doing well. Japan just went back into recession.

And the US is going to raise rates. Not because the US economy is going gangbusters (it's not). But after talking to a number of my market comrades, it's really about credibility.

The Fed can either look a the numbers and say, "Well, the numbers just don't justify rocking the boat right now. We're not far enough along in the recovery to jar the economy both domestically and globally with a rate hike yet."

Or it can raise rates since it's been threatening to do it for almost 6 months now. Some feel that the Fed 'has' to raise rates or look toothless. Granted, raising here may have a lot of bad unintended consequences that could cause huge hardships at home and abroad, but it's better than the Fed looking bad, right?

For example, today the consumer spending data was released. The takeaway in most major media outlets is that consumers are spending again and along with low unemployment, it shows the economy is on its way back. And shower the good news among the people....

However, the other way to look at the data is to look one level deeper than the surface.

Consumers weren't spending in the stores. They were spending more on healthcare and housing. Rents are rising faster than they have in 8 years. And retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom just released terrible numbers for Q3.

This isn't an indication of a resurgent economy. Also note that while many people are employed, many are underemployed, grabbing whatever jobs they can. And a record number of workers are out of the workforce. Those are people who have either joined the shadow economy of Uber drivers and part time workers or just given up trying to find work.

Add to this the continued compulsion for big firms to buy back their stock to help it look like the stock, and therefore the company, is doing well. It also helps allow the company to control any major selloffs should their news become too bad. 

None of this is healthy. And, sadly, none of it is likely to matter when the Fed makes its announcement in December.

We are likely to see Europe announce massive new easing policies, including lowering negative interest rates even further, while the US raises rates.

May we live in interesting times indeed.

The Horror...

I don't think I really need to add my voice to the horror of Paris.

But I do have some observations in the aftermath.

First is, what happened to the horror in Beirut the day before? In all the talk of Paris I didn't hear one analyst or talking head link the two or the fact they happened a day apart.

43 people died - innocents just like in Paris - and hundreds were injured by two suicide bombers. 

And this is also on the heels of the Russian airliner being taken from the sky - another 224 people.

Hundreds dead and hundreds injured outside the Syrian battlespace in the past couple weeks. That's stunning.

Now before I started writing this, I was going to talk about how Beirut was buried as a story (on TV news) when Paris took over and my feeling that this was illustrative our inherent lack of concern about 'other' people that aren't white Europeans.

But as I begin to write, what I see as the more compelling story here is the fact that by reporting on each pebble, we have missed the path we're on.

ISIS - or whatever the new word is for them now (as if name-calling really does anything more than show our fear and feebleness in responding any other way) - has strung together 3 major events, each highly coordinated in its own way, in a fortnight.

That's impressive. 

What's more, it's fighting both the US and Russia and their allies, getting into various countries and wreaking havoc.

This is no JV squad at this point, if it ever was. 

The title of post is from Colonel Kurtz' stirring monologue in Apocolypse now. BTW, I just saw a bio on Marlon Brando last night on some channel and there was a spot when they were talking to Coppola about the film and he said, "This isn't supposed to be about Vietnam, it's supposed to be Vietnam."

I think the real point is, it's about total war and it's costs.

Thank you to Simona Mooon at Deviant Art for the post:

I’ve seen horrors, horrors that you’ve seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that, but you have no right to judge me. It’s impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. 
....Horror. Horror has a face...And you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies. I remember when I was with Special Forces...Seems a thousand centuries ago...We went into a camp to innoculate the children. We left the camp after we had innoculated the children for Polio, and this old man came running after us and he was crying. He couldn't see. We went back there and they had come and hacked off every innoculated arm. There they were in a pile...A pile of little arms. And I remember...I...I...I cried...I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it. I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. And then I realized...like I was shot...Like I was shot with a diamond...a diamond bullet right through my forehead...And I thought: My God...the genius of that. The genius. The will to do that. Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure. And then I realized they were stronger than we. Because they could stand that these were not monsters...These were men...trained cadres...these men who fought with their hearts, who had families, who had children, who were filled with love...but they had the strength...the strength...to do that. If I had ten divisions of those men our troubles here would be over very quickly. You have to have men who are moral...and at the same time who are able to utilize their primordal instincts to kill without feeling...without passion...without judgement...without judgement. Because it's judgement that defeats us."


Also, I think it's appropriate to add here the poem behind the name of this blog, The Love Song Of J Alfred Prufrock (Eliot reading it is on this link). 

It was published in the midst of World War I (TSE was living in England and witnessing the devastation first hand) and I think the message of modern society dealing with the unfathomable is also addressed in a different way here. And the ending line, 'Till human voices wake us, and we drown.' is today the voice of ISIS and similar all-too-human base human voices. Because certainly there is no other species on this planet that would do this to its own. 

It's all too human.

EO Wilson's concept of 'eusocial species' is especially relevant for the harm and power these rare species have at their disposal.

S’io credesse che mia risposta fosse
A persona che mai tornasse al mondo,
Questa fiamma staria senza piu scosse.
Ma percioche giammai di questo fondo
Non torno vivo alcun, s’i’odo il vero,
Senza tema d’infamia ti rispondo.

Let us go then, you and I,

When the evening is spread out against the sky

Like a patient etherized upon a table;

Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,

The muttering retreats

Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels

And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:

Streets that follow like a tedious argument

Of insidious intent

To lead you to an overwhelming question ...

Oh, do not ask, “What is it?”

Let us go and make our visit.

In the room the women come and go

Talking of Michelangelo.

The yellow fog that rubs its back upon the window-panes,

The yellow smoke that rubs its muzzle on the window-panes,

Licked its tongue into the corners of the evening,

Lingered upon the pools that stand in drains,

Let fall upon its back the soot that falls from chimneys,

Slipped by the terrace, made a sudden leap,

And seeing that it was a soft October night,

Curled once about the house, and fell asleep.

And indeed there will be time

For the yellow smoke that slides along the street,

Rubbing its back upon the window-panes;

There will be time, there will be time

To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet;

There will be time to murder and create,

And time for all the works and days of hands

That lift and drop a question on your plate;

Time for you and time for me,

And time yet for a hundred indecisions,

And for a hundred visions and revisions,

Before the taking of a toast and tea.

In the room the women come and go

Talking of Michelangelo.

And indeed there will be time

To wonder, “Do I dare?” and, “Do I dare?”

Time to turn back and descend the stair,

With a bald spot in the middle of my hair —

(They will say: “How his hair is growing thin!”)

My morning coat, my collar mounting firmly to the chin,

My necktie rich and modest, but asserted by a simple pin —

(They will say: “But how his arms and legs are thin!”)

Do I dare

Disturb the universe?

In a minute there is time

For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

For I have known them all already, known them all:

Have known the evenings, mornings, afternoons,

I have measured out my life with coffee spoons;

I know the voices dying with a dying fall

Beneath the music from a farther room.

               So how should I presume?

And I have known the eyes already, known them all—

The eyes that fix you in a formulated phrase,

And when I am formulated, sprawling on a pin,

When I am pinned and wriggling on the wall,

Then how should I begin

To spit out all the butt-ends of my days and ways?

               And how should I presume?

And I have known the arms already, known them all—

Arms that are braceleted and white and bare

(But in the lamplight, downed with light brown hair!)

Is it perfume from a dress

That makes me so digress?

Arms that lie along a table, or wrap about a shawl.

               And should I then presume?

               And how should I begin?

Shall I say, I have gone at dusk through narrow streets

And watched the smoke that rises from the pipes

Of lonely men in shirt-sleeves, leaning out of windows? ...

I should have been a pair of ragged claws

Scuttling across the floors of silent seas.

And the afternoon, the evening, sleeps so peacefully!

Smoothed by long fingers,

Asleep ... tired ... or it malingers,

Stretched on the floor, here beside you and me.

Should I, after tea and cakes and ices,

Have the strength to force the moment to its crisis?

But though I have wept and fasted, wept and prayed,

Though I have seen my head (grown slightly bald) brought in upon a platter,

I am no prophet — and here’s no great matter;

I have seen the moment of my greatness flicker,

And I have seen the eternal Footman hold my coat, and snicker,

And in short, I was afraid.

And would it have been worth it, after all,

After the cups, the marmalade, the tea,

Among the porcelain, among some talk of you and me,

Would it have been worth while,

To have bitten off the matter with a smile,

To have squeezed the universe into a ball

To roll it towards some overwhelming question,

To say: “I am Lazarus, come from the dead,

Come back to tell you all, I shall tell you all”—

If one, settling a pillow by her head

               Should say: “That is not what I meant at all;

               That is not it, at all.”

And would it have been worth it, after all,

Would it have been worth while,

After the sunsets and the dooryards and the sprinkled streets,

After the novels, after the teacups, after the skirts that trail along the floor—

And this, and so much more?—

It is impossible to say just what I mean!

But as if a magic lantern threw the nerves in patterns on a screen:

Would it have been worth while

If one, settling a pillow or throwing off a shawl,

And turning toward the window, should say:

               “That is not it at all,

               That is not what I meant, at all.”

No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be;

Am an attendant lord, one that will do

To swell a progress, start a scene or two,

Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool,

Deferential, glad to be of use,

Politic, cautious, and meticulous;

Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse;

At times, indeed, almost ridiculous—

Almost, at times, the Fool.

I grow old ... I grow old ...

I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.

Shall I part my hair behind?   Do I dare to eat a peach?

I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.

I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.

I do not think that they will sing to me.

I have seen them riding seaward on the waves

Combing the white hair of the waves blown back

When the wind blows the water white and black.

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea

By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown

Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

The Sad State of the Fourth Estate

All right, before I begin, I have to tell you what just happened.

I was separating a pomegranate and the phone ran. An 855 number. I hesistated but answered.

It was a robo-call from Ben Carson. Yep.

How the hell did I end up on a list that would have them spend money on a call to me? Granted it was only pennies but still.

It's really a reflection on how worthless lists are in the direct mail business these days. A lot of traditional direct mail businesses that used to flood your mailbox with offers and assorted 'marketing materials' had to shift to email as the internet went from fad to reality. A lot of Old School marketers kept thinking it was the same concept with a new medium. 

Nope. The nature behind the sell may remain fairly consistent, but the way you sell is increasingly different. And the traditional DM mailers, have kind of screwed themselves in the new online DM world.  

To protect their new lists, they kept the good names to themselves and rented their worst names. Now, no one can build a decent list using other people's lists. Which makes everyone's lists worthless. 

My old publisher had a penchant for saying, 'We're not in the publishing business, we're in the list business.' 

It was very true. And remains so. But because they never adapted to seeing lists in a new way, they helped make their list business a dinosaur. And nowadays, once you get behind, you don't get out ahead again.

And listening to smooth-talking Ben today reinforced that this problem is happening across all sectors. 

And that's why individualization and curation are such important aspects to any kind of successful marketing these days. Whether you're a publisher, a restauranteur or an industrialist, customization is what separates the winners from the losers.

Sorry Ben. 

And on the other side of this issue is the media.

You see, before the Carson call, I was debating whether I wanted to even see the debate tonight.

The first one was an event. The second reasonably entertaining. The third was fine - until the candidates started that 'gotcha' crap.

Look, you're running for the presidency of the United States. You think every question you're going to get is a thoughtful rumination that meets your approval? You're supposedly going to be running a democracy, not a dictatorship.

What's the difference between a 'bad' question to a dictator and a president?

Democratically elected politician: Fuck you, answer it. You're working for the people that asked it.

Dictator: Refuse to answer such a stupid question. Excoriate the idiot (or group of idiots). Then quietly make sure that person (or group) never gets to ask another question that doesn't meet your approval.

Now I get that virtually all politicians are a callow group. And that is why they don't get to set the agenda. 

To see the media outlets cave to this group's demands was yet another nail in the coffin of the corporate or establishment media.

This is the reason there has been a generational shift on where younger people get news. They're searching for people who aren't going to lie or distort a story because of advertisers, parent companies, coziness with the powerful.

The Fourth Estate used to be adversarial to all and disenfranchised from the corridors of power. It was a badge of honor. But now journalist are corrupted by the corrupt. They feed off the power they're given by the powerful.

And the large media organizations are in a self-actualized death spiral because there's more accounting in a newsroom than integrity. At every point when we needed our major journalistic organizations to stand tall, they cowered.

Yes there were some exceptions and I laud those individual journalists. But they are exceptions to the new rules.

And these engineered debates are one more bright path to news organization's decline.

So, do I want to watch that? 

Yes in some sick way. And wouldn't you know it would FOX that hosts the devolution of its own credibility.

I think Maria will be the highlight of the event. I worked with her and she's very bright and does her research. I used to like Cavuto until he sold his soul to the FOX machine. They're both from the group that put CNBC on the map as a credible financial organization. And I can certainly see why they left, but I'm not sure their celebrity has helped their credibility.

As an aside. This is why the only place I turn for financial news is Bloomberg. For now.

Bloomberg still hires smart people that do good hard work every day. It's a bit more 'audience friendly' than it used to be but it still talks to people and tells stories that are important to what's going on in the markets and economies around the world. It hasn't lost its editorial mandate to grab more ad revenue.

And again, the irony is, it's the most successful of the 3 financial networks because it sticks to its mission. It doesn't sell or message anything. I doesn't have a bunch of CEOs on to blow smoke up each other's ass. It doesn't do semi-investigative journalism to ad to its revenue stream. It does the news.

So, what should we expect tonight?

Maria and Neil will not be fawning but it's not going go down as the toughest questioning these candidates will ever get. 

It's about the candidates, after all. They want (and will get) the spotlight to be wise and passionate and compassionate visionaries without anyone telling them they're full of shit.

Trump: Just be Trump and it will be fine.
Carson: Stop blaming and show us some real ideas that stand up to the mildest of scrutiny (and stop calling me!)
Bush: Care. Act like you want to win the office, not like it's an inevitability.
Rubio: Don't be an asshole. And don't act like an impatient bounder.
Cruz: Tell us when you led a group to success and stop bragging about being an outsider. You're a freakin' senator for God's sake.
Fiorina: I find her utterly annoying and hypocritical and distasteful. No advice.
Kasich: Keep acting like the adult in the room. The American people will eventually get it. Just stop telling us about the same damn things you did in Ohio. Give me the future, not the past.

So, bottom line I think. If I can get to the liquor store so I can fortify myself for this bread and circus, I may actually watch it. I'll certainly DVR it, just in case I don't have the nerve to see it live. Then I'll read all the crap tomorrow and tonight and then watch it to see how the media spins it vs the way I see it.

Because the more I listen to the media, the more I don't trust a thing they say, sadly.

Another Media Twist

Ok, I've said enough for one day. But before I go, check out this article from Fortune today. It talks about a very interesting trend that will continue to grow as we see sites like Facebook become so staggeringly important to media and advertising sources.

I haven't wrapped my mind around it yet but I think it's important. If any of you have some thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

The Seventh Day Adventists and target rich journalism

I've been doing some looking into the whole Seventh Day Adventist (SDA) thing.

Shouldn't the press be looking into a domestic 'religion' that was built off the 1844 prediction of the second coming Jesus Christ? Ambitious Baptist minister William Miller - without the aid of newfangled computers or nuthin', mind you - figured that radicalized came up with a salvation plan. Doing some quick math, and working from the book of Daniel, he figured out that Christ was coming back in 1844. And he had a lot of Millerites following him, all across the country. 

Imagine the egg on his face when Jesus didn't show up! 

This is schism that created the SDA. And not that the SDA backed off this absurd belief. The husband and wife founders Ellen and James White, riffed on this whole thing. Here's a few of the highlights from Wikipedia:

• Second Coming and End times (fundamental beliefs 25–28)—Jesus Christ will return visibly to earth after a "time of trouble", during which the Sabbath will become a worldwide test. The Second Coming will be followed by a millennial reign of the saints in heaven. Adventist eschatology is based on the historicist method of prophetic interpretation.
• Wholistic human nature (fundamental beliefs 7, 26)—Humans are an indivisible unity of body, mind, and spirit. They do not possess an immortal soul and there is no consciousness after death (commonly referred to as "soul sleep"). (See also: Christian anthropology)
• Conditional immortality (fundamental belief 27)—The wicked will not suffer eternal torment in hell, but instead will be permanently destroyed. 
• Investigative Judgment (fundamental belief 24)—A judgment of professed Christians began in 1844, in which the books of record are examined for all the universe to see. The investigative judgment will affirm who will receive salvation, and vindicate God in the eyes of the universe as just in his dealings with mankind.
• Spirit of Prophecy (fundamental belief 18)—The ministry of Ellen G. White is commonly referred to as the "Spirit of Prophecy" and her writings are considered "a continuing and authoritative source of truth",^[24]though ultimately subject to the Bible. (See: Inspiration of Ellen White)

I chose Wikepedia because it was likely the middle ground between critics and believers on these doctrines. It may not be the most incisive source but it's the best general source.

So, with all this 'easy target' stuff to go after with Carson, the 'press' goes after whether he was promised or kind of led to believe he might get a full ride to West Point. Really?

I'm not quite sure who's more lame, the corporate media or Ben Carson.

So, I don't want to waste photons on my feelings on the state of corporate media these days (yet). 

That means, it's Ben Carson's religious cult ranting time. 

Obviously no one has the balls to say anything about this odd sect.

But given our love of liberty and 1st Amendment, I will start the ball rolling.

Let's start with this whole Second Coming thing: When asked what day Jesus might show up, so as to have a nice cup of tea or coffee available or some good barbecue, Miller differred to come up with a date and would only offer up the Jewish year (don't ask) March 21, 1843 to March 21, 1844. No believer alarm bells?

Outrageous sounding yes. But like today, when Ben Carson stands by the fact that Joseph built the pyramids to store grain and people defend this idiocy (little things like the pyramids were built 2000 years before Jesus showed up, or the Jews were slaves back when the pyramids were actually built), plenty people blindly follow this absurdity.

In 1844 these people sold their belongings, left their homes and congregated in fields, together across the US to wait. And wait. And wait.

Yet this, literally, Great Disappointment, didn't deter the movement. That's frightening in and of itself. I mean, you promise the freakin' second coming of Jesus Christ and blow it.

Who are these people that continue to follow people who got it so wrong? What is in their nature that is so gullible that they can be lead by proven charlatans? The real American spirit? I hope not.

But Ben Carson is the progeny of these people. The Seventh Day Adventists were formed from the folks who got screwed at The Great Disappointment.

Now, as a man of science, you would figure someone like Carson would look at empirical data. If someone tried a procedure and it failed miserably, you look for variation on that procedure, or a fresh start.

But under this logic, he has stuck with girl he brung to the dance, regardless of whether he found out it wasn't actually the girl he thought she was.

And the weird thing about this is, he's continually talking about how intellectually flexible he is and how he's the 'smart' candidate, dispassionately looking at his past positions and changing them (like pro-choice vs pro-life) as he 'evolves'.

The SDA didn't back away from the second coming. It's still waiting. And it celebrates the Sabbath on Saturday - like Judaism and Islam.

This SDA thing is like a mild form of Scientology. It's certainly uniquely American. And it's based on some long-standing religious belief structure. But it ain't you're average Protestant sect. We're not quibbling here between Lutheran and Episcopalian.

It's time for religious people to grow up and ask their questions and for the press to ask their questions. They did it when a Catholic was first elected. And they explored it when we had a potential Mormon (which has just as bizarre and origin myth) seeking the office. What sets Carson apart? And why isn't someone exploring the hypocrisy of his faith and his scientific reasoning? 

That's all target rich shit for real journalism.

Keystone XL and the Clintons, etc

So, it looks like TransCanada has asked that the US government wait to decide whether it's going to allow the company to build its Keystone XL pipeline.

Why this story is such a big deal is beyond me. It's not really that XL and there's already a Keystone pipeline in operation. I'm not saying I support it, but this issue is such a lightning rod for the Right and the Left thinks it's like opening drilling in Yellowstone.

Apparently, TransCanada wants to wait until a new administration comes to power that may be amenable to the project. And energy prices may be off the floor then and drillers would actually be drilling, so there would be a need for yet another pipeline.to bring Canadian energy - and some US shale oil - to the US market.

I want to share a story I heard a few years back, when this deal looked like it was going to pass quickly. A colleague of mine who used to run a major environmental activist group and was then doing deep research on specific issues for clients told me that the Clintons both had significant interests in the Keystone XL project. By that I mean they made a lot of money from the folks who wanted this deal to go through. And my friend is meticulous about his research and well connected, so this wasn't just insider gossip.

I have been watching it ever since then to see where Hillary comes down on it and whether any oppo research crops up pointing fingers at the Clintons.

None yet. But consider this: I we assume Hillary is elected (it could be a Republican, but then the pipeline is a done deal anyway), then holding off may be very wise. She could come in, say she is giving the win to the GOP as a peace offering and get paid.

She's a private citizen now, so it's hardly a big deal at this point. But these are the kind of behind the scenes deals that run politics at the national level. Let's see what happens.

An Interesting Ad

I saw this ad on Quartz today. It's basically making my point on the transition the global economy is making since the financial implosion in 2008. Ironically, it's selling itself as a company to help big companies game the system better. Jesus.

It says that QE is no longer working and earnings per share are declining for most big businesses, so they're turning to M&As. This is stated very matter of factly. And its ironic because this kind of gaming the economy by using share buybacks and massive M&A activity is only to obfuscate the fact that we're still not really generating any real growth - anywhere.

It states that companies were artificially growing with QE and when that stopped working, they started M&As to keep their stock prices up.

So, we're almost a decade down the road from the financial crisis and we have more wealth inequality than we did during the age of the robber barons a century ago; the US economy is at 1.5% GDP (which sadly makes the rest of developed nations jealous); and while everyone else is still easing, we're about to raise rates.

Again, this is the Conversion Economy in action. I'm not bullish on where this is going to end but I'm sure what remains of the middle class will get screwed the longest and hardest (and not in a good way). And the latest economic reports bear this out.

Personally, I think we should have let them all fail. It would have catastrophic, yes. But it would have cleansed the system of the people at the top who are making money by gaming the system instead of building an economy. And the same people who would have gotten screwed then, will be the same ones that get screwed when it all comes down now. Except now, it falls in pieces instead of as a whole. It's like a slow-motion car crash. We've extended the pain without relieving anyone of the suffering.

Ah, Little Marco Rubio

There's an old Chinese curse: May your wishes come true.

It looks like they have for Sen Rubio at this point.

He wanted the spotlight. He wanted to run with the big dogs. And now he has it. The spotlight.

And all the heat that goes with it.

Sure it's little stuff. But it's the little stuff that you can't get off your shoes and it stinks and it gathers other stuff as well.

Let's see how he deals with this. Whether he goes on the offensive, tries to deflect (the press loves that) or goes on the defensive by taking the moral high ground that he did something but this is just political shenanigans by his opponents and there's no there there.

I'm sure this is the first salvo.

You know what the Bush oppo team has been able to come up with. And now he's dissed the Jeb and that means HW and W will be opening the gates to crush this little bounder.

That's why Bush didn't bite when Rubio snapped at him at the debate. The Bush family has been around a long time. They're very well connected and very powerful. Most Americans have no idea how bulletproof you are as a scion of the ruling class.

It's rude to be rude, so Jeb made a joke - a good one - and Marco didn't growl, he snapped. Bad form my boy and you just sealed your fate. Whether Bush endures or not, he will not go down without Rubio down with him.

And as we can see by Rubio's fast and loose finances, he doesn't have the fiscal wherewithal to make it back. He'll be selling used cars in Little Havana in 3 years.

His outburst also signaled to the other masters of the universe that he may kiss their ring, but at some point he'll bite their hand eventually. Who needs that?

Americans have no real idea of the game that is unfolding on the political stage right now. Maybe intuitively but it's not something most can verbalize or contextualize. And the press encourages this superficial view since it makes for great TV entertainment.

Enjoy bread and circus, just don't take it too seriously...yet.

Conversion Economy News

So, here's something from ZeroHedge that I thought was interesting - the US economy is once again giving one bullish indicator and simultaneously giving us a bearish indicator.

Manufacturing was up but PMI (purchasing managers index) was at its lowest since January.

Signals continue to confuse more than enlighten. 

I wish I could remember where I recently read an article where the writer was explaining that the Fed can't seem to get the economy moving again because they're not truly understanding that the previous metrics they used to 'fix' the economy no longer work the same way.

They're looking at stats that no longer mean what they used to.

This is what I call the Conversion Economy. We can no longer analyze the economy in traditional terms. We have to find new ways to understand how economic growth and expansion work as we retool and adapt to a digital economy.

The obvious examples are newspapers and magazines. But it's also manufacturing and entertainment, infrastructure and energy. It is touching every sector; it is the new forest growing back from the devastating fire we had in 2008. 

A Tough Few Days for Carly

I'm not sure why she annoys me so much, but she does.

Perhaps it's the false populism.

Or the desire to appeal to the lowest common denominator during the Planned Parenthood thing.

Or the false spontaneity of the 'I buried a child' emotional admission in front of 60 million people.

Or maybe it's just the hypocrisy of it all wrapped up into one obvious and inelegant package.

But I also knew, I didn't have to rail too much because there was no way karma was going to hold it together for her for much longer.

And I was right. This weekend Politico wrote a piece about her step-daughter who died at 35 from alcohol and prescription drug addiction issues. The piece isn't some scathing piece but the decline and death is far less dramatic than the campaign has made it out to be. It was a sad story of a young girl, then woman's, long, slow decline.

As parents - and step parents - we think that we'll always have a powerful connection with our children and that when the shit hits the fan they always know they can turn to us. But sometimes they end up isolating themselves and you have to watch from afar as they pass through life's difficult passages, hoping they'll navigate to safety.

That didn't happen in this case, sadly.

But it's a good thing to have the whole story on the record so it can't be emotionally cherry picked. No spinning this tragedy. One arrow out of her ambitious quiver.

Then over the weekend former eBay CEO and current HP CEO Meg Whitman said she wouldn't vote for Carly. That's a swipe by the current CEO as well as another powerful woman business titan. Ouch.

So, you say, "well, Whitman simply said she wanted a candidate with more political experience." Yes, OK. But she didn't name the others in the race that didn't have political experience. Her choice of words were key. Also, she didn't have to say anything. Given that, she certainly said something and it should resonate not only with voters but fundraisers as well.

Again, we excoriate the media for how inept they are during the debates, yet then we hang on their every word about who is where in the horse race. Sam Rayburn had it right, "Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people."

But in "the people's" defense I will say there's generally a collective native intelligence that doesn't take us down any bad road too far. Or hasn't yet.

Although, James Buchanan was close.

Anyway, as weird as it feels to write this, Trump is actually the total package right now. He's stopped saying crazy shit on a daily basis and is really in campaign mode with solid debate performances and a lot of energy. 

Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are flavors of the day, they're circus in this bread and circus.

Kasich and Bush are the undercard at this point.

Cruz is the dark horse. But that photo op of him hunting upland game the other day was a bit over the top. That's not a message that gets him out of his core demo. He might as well start negotiating with one of the front runners (or moneyed players) for a role in their campaign, drop out and endorse.

Please let it be Fiorina...