This is essentially the prism with which most Americans see the world - a US-centric view.
France has gone through 2 World Wars on its own soil, including Hitler's occupying army. And the Holocaust. I think they know something of terror and death.
Maybe we could learn from them?
Nah.
We're like teenagers rolling our eyes at our parents when they do something 'stupid'.
One of my favorite Joseph Conrad quotes: Too much youth is wasted on the young.
Of Economics
On the economic front, we continue to edge closer to what is going to be a very wild month in the global markets.
Europe is planning on more easing, pumping more money into its system via its central bank because the continent is still flagging. China and India aren't doing well. Japan just went back into recession.
And the US is going to raise rates. Not because the US economy is going gangbusters (it's not). But after talking to a number of my market comrades, it's really about credibility.
The Fed can either look a the numbers and say, "Well, the numbers just don't justify rocking the boat right now. We're not far enough along in the recovery to jar the economy both domestically and globally with a rate hike yet."
Or it can raise rates since it's been threatening to do it for almost 6 months now. Some feel that the Fed 'has' to raise rates or look toothless. Granted, raising here may have a lot of bad unintended consequences that could cause huge hardships at home and abroad, but it's better than the Fed looking bad, right?
For example, today the consumer spending data was released. The takeaway in most major media outlets is that consumers are spending again and along with low unemployment, it shows the economy is on its way back. And shower the good news among the people....
However, the other way to look at the data is to look one level deeper than the surface.
Consumers weren't spending in the stores. They were spending more on healthcare and housing. Rents are rising faster than they have in 8 years. And retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom just released terrible numbers for Q3.
This isn't an indication of a resurgent economy. Also note that while many people are employed, many are underemployed, grabbing whatever jobs they can. And a record number of workers are out of the workforce. Those are people who have either joined the shadow economy of Uber drivers and part time workers or just given up trying to find work.
Add to this the continued compulsion for big firms to buy back their stock to help it look like the stock, and therefore the company, is doing well. It also helps allow the company to control any major selloffs should their news become too bad.
None of this is healthy. And, sadly, none of it is likely to matter when the Fed makes its announcement in December.
We are likely to see Europe announce massive new easing policies, including lowering negative interest rates even further, while the US raises rates.
May we live in interesting times indeed.
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